Questa è una versione PDF del contenuto. Per la versione completa e aggiornata, visita:
Verrai reindirizzato automaticamente...
A searing, record-breaking run for precious metals came to an abrupt halt on Friday, January 30, 2026, as global markets reacted violently to reports that Kevin Warsh is the frontrunner to become the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The so-called "dollar debasement trade," which had fueled a historic rally in commodities throughout January, unraveled rapidly, sending gold plunging and dragging silver below the psychological $100 per ounce mark.
The selloff, described by analysts as a "bloodletting" for metals, was triggered by a sharp resurgence in the U.S. dollar. Investors scrambled to reprice the trajectory of American monetary policy after multiple sources indicated that President Donald Trump is preparing to nominate Warsh, a former Federal Reserve Governor known for his hawkish views on inflation and skepticism of ultra-loose monetary policy. The mere expectation of his appointment has been sufficient to shake the foundations of the recent commodities boom, prompting a wave of profit-taking and liquidation across the board.
By midday trading, the carnage in the metals market was palpable. Spot gold, which had been trading near all-time highs earlier in the week, plummeted by over 5%, briefly dipping below the $5,000 per ounce level before stabilizing slightly. Silver, the high-flying star of January’s rally, suffered an even steeper decline, crashing more than 10% to trade below $100, a level it had only recently conquered with significant fanfare. Copper joined the rout, pressured by a strengthening greenback and sudden margin hikes by major exchanges.
The primary catalyst for Friday’s dramatic reversal is the market’s reassessment of the Federal Reserve’s future leadership. Kevin Warsh, who served on the Fed’s Board of Governors during the 2008 financial crisis, is widely perceived by Wall Street as a "hard money" advocate. Unlike other potential candidates who might favor easier money to stimulate growth, Warsh has a reputation for prioritizing price stability and has previously criticized the central bank’s expansive balance sheet.
According to currency strategists at ING, the prospect of Warsh taking the helm has offered a "lifeline" to the U.S. dollar, which had been languishing at multi-year lows. The logic is straightforward: a Fed led by Warsh is expected to be more vigilant against inflation and potentially less inclined to cut interest rates aggressively, thereby increasing the yield appeal of the dollar relative to non-yielding assets like gold and silver.
"The market is pricing in a regime change," noted Christopher Wong, a strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. "Warsh’s reputation as an inflation hawk is prompting a rapid unwind of the short-dollar positions that have been so profitable this month. It’s the excuse markets were waiting for to correct these parabolic moves in metals."
The violence of the selloff was particularly acute in the silver market. After soaring nearly 50% in January alone—a move driven by industrial demand and speculative fervor—the white metal faced a brutal reality check. Trading data from London and New York showed silver futures tumbling from a record high of over $121 on Thursday to breach the $100 support level on Friday morning.
This volatility was exacerbated by technical factors. According to reports from the CME Group, the exchange raised margin requirements for copper futures by 20% effective January 30, a move designed to curb excessive speculation. While aimed at the red metal, the liquidity squeeze spilled over into precious metals, forcing leveraged traders to liquidate positions in gold and silver to cover margin calls.
Gold’s retreat was equally significant, though less volatile than its silver counterpart. The yellow metal slid approximately 6%, moving from near $5,600 to test support around the $5,000 region. Despite the drop, gold remains up significantly for the month, having logged its best January performance since the early 1980s. However, the sudden shift in sentiment suggests that the one-way street higher has been closed for now.
For weeks, the dominant narrative in global finance has been the "debasement trade"—a strategy where investors pile into hard assets to protect their wealth against perceived currency devaluation and fiscal irresponsibility. This trade was predicated on the belief that the Federal Reserve, under political pressure, would allow inflation to run hot and the dollar to weaken indefinitely.
The emergence of Kevin Warsh as the likely nominee challenges this thesis. If appointed, Warsh is expected to assert the Fed’s independence and focus on preserving the purchasing power of the dollar. This potential pivot has forced macro funds to rapidly exit their "long metals, short dollar" positions.
According to a note from analysts at Citigroup, while the long-term drivers for gold—such as geopolitical instability and central bank buying—remain intact, the short-term speculative froth is being blown off. "The debasement trade is taking a breather," the note stated. "Investors are realizing that a Warsh-led Fed might not be the liquidity pump they were banking on."
The shockwaves from the commodities crash were felt across equity markets, particularly among mining stocks. Shares of major silver miners and diversified metal producers slumped heavily, with some individual names down double digits. The Nifty Metal index in India, a key gauge of global metal sentiment, fell nearly 5%, led by sharp declines in copper and aluminum producers.
Conversely, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) staged a robust recovery, climbing 0.5% against a basket of major currencies. This strength in the greenback acts as a double whammy for commodities, making them more expensive for holders of other currencies and reducing their investment appeal.
Friday’s market action serves as a stark reminder of how quickly sentiment can turn when the macroeconomic landscape shifts. The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh has injected a new variable into the financial equation, challenging the assumption of perpetual dollar weakness. While the long-term bull case for precious metals may still hold merit due to global uncertainties, the immediate euphoria has been decisively checked. As traders await the official announcement from the White House, the days of easy, parabolic gains for gold and silver appear to be over, replaced by a more volatile and cautious trading environment.
The sharp decline in precious metal prices was primarily triggered by reports identifying Kevin Warsh as the frontrunner for the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Markets reacted violently to his reputation as a monetary hawk who prioritizes price stability over loose monetary policy. This speculation caused a rapid resurgence in the U.S. dollar, forcing investors to unwind the dollar debasement trade and liquidate their positions in gold and silver.
Kevin Warsh is viewed by Wall Street as a hard money advocate who is skeptical of expansive balance sheets and aggressive rate cuts. His potential leadership suggests a regime change toward a more vigilant stance against inflation. This expectation provided a lifeline to the U.S. dollar, increasing its yield appeal relative to non-yielding assets like commodities and prompting a reversal of short-dollar positions.
The dollar debasement trade is an investment strategy where market participants pile into hard assets like gold and silver to protect their wealth against perceived currency devaluation and fiscal irresponsibility. This trade relies on the assumption that the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to run hot. However, the emergence of a hawkish candidate like Warsh challenges this thesis, leading macro funds to rapidly exit these positions.
Yes, beyond the political news, technical factors exacerbated the market volatility. The CME Group raised margin requirements for copper futures by 20 percent to curb excessive speculation. This liquidity squeeze spilled over into the broader metals market, forcing leveraged traders to liquidate their gold and silver holdings to cover margin calls, which intensified the downward price pressure.
While the immediate parabolic rally has been halted, analysts suggest that the long-term drivers for precious metals, such as geopolitical instability and central bank buying, remain intact. However, the market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution. The potential for a Warsh-led Fed has introduced a new variable that challenges the assumption of perpetual dollar weakness, suggesting a more volatile trading environment ahead.