Quebec’s political landscape has been thrown into unprecedented turmoil following the surprise resignation of Premier François Legault. The announcement, made just last week, marks the end of an era for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), the party Legault founded in 2011 and led to two consecutive majority governments. As of January 21, 2026, the province finds itself in a state of flux, with the governing party polling at historic lows and opposition parties scrambling to capitalize on the power vacuum ahead of the general election scheduled for October 5.

Legault’s departure comes amidst a dramatic collapse in public support. According to a recent Pallas Data poll conducted in early January, the CAQ has plummeted to just 10 per cent in voting intentions. The Premier cited this erosion of trust and a palpable desire for change among Quebecers as his primary reasons for stepping down. While Legault has committed to remaining in office until a new leader is chosen—a process expected to conclude by mid-April—the instability within the government is palpable, reshaping the narrative of Quebec politics.

The CAQ in Freefall

The CAQ is currently facing what analysts describe as an existential crisis. Once the dominant force in the National Assembly, the party is now reeling from a series of high-profile departures and policy failures. In addition to Legault’s resignation, the party has lost 11 MNAs since the 2022 election. Recent days have seen further blows to the cabinet, with Education Minister Sonia LeBel and Transport Minister Geneviève Guilbault announcing they will not seek re-election. This follows the exit of Health Minister Christian Dubé in December 2025, who cited contentious negotiations with doctors’ unions as a key factor in his departure.

The internal disarray is compounded by the party’s inability to retain seats in its traditional strongholds. The CAQ has lost three consecutive byelections in Jean-Talon, Terrebonne, and Arthabaska—ridings it had comfortably held previously. These defeats have not only reduced the CAQ’s caucus from 90 seats in 2022 to 79 today but have also shattered the aura of invincibility that once surrounded Legault’s government.

The Race to Succeed Legault

With the leadership position now open, speculation is mounting over who will take the helm of the beleaguered party. The CAQ has never held a leadership race since its inception, adding a layer of uncertainty to the proceedings. According to party insiders, Finance Minister Eric Girard and Minister of Economy, Innovation and Energy Christine Fréchette are considered top contenders. Fréchette has publicly acknowledged the rumors, stating she is beginning a "process of reflection" regarding a potential run.

However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The new leader will inherit a party trailing significantly in the polls and facing a skeptical electorate concerned about the cost of living, the healthcare crisis, and the government’s handling of major industrial projects like the Northvolt deal. The leadership contest is set to conclude in April, leaving the victor with a mere six months to rebuild the party’s image before the general election.

The Parti Québécois on the Rise

As the CAQ falters, the Parti Québécois (PQ) has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the shifting political tides. Under the leadership of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ has seen a resurgence, currently leading in opinion polls. The party has successfully capitalized on the government’s missteps, winning key byelections and positioning itself as the government-in-waiting. St-Pierre Plamondon has framed Legault’s resignation as definitive proof that Quebecers are ready for a new chapter, explicitly linking the desire for change to the cause of Quebec independence.

The PQ’s momentum is built on a platform that promises to address the very issues the CAQ is perceived to have neglected, while simultaneously reigniting the sovereignty debate. With the CAQ’s nationalist coalition fracturing, the PQ is effectively consolidating the pro-independence vote, a strategy that appears to be paying dividends as the province heads toward the October vote.

Liberals Seeking Direction

While the PQ surges, the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) remains in a state of transition. The official opposition is currently leaderless following the resignation of Pablo Rodriguez in late 2025, a departure triggered by a tumultuous period marked by internal scandals. The Liberals are scheduled to select their new leader in March 2026, just a month before the CAQ concludes its own race.

Despite their internal challenges, the Liberals are polling higher than the CAQ, suggesting that the desire for change is not solely benefiting the sovereignist camp. Charles Milliard has officially entered the race, but the party has yet to unveil a candidate for the upcoming Chicoutimi byelection, highlighting the organizational difficulties they face. The Liberals must quickly consolidate their base and present a coherent alternative if they hope to challenge the PQ’s dominance in the fall.

Immediate Tests: The Chicoutimi Byelection

The first major electoral test in this new political reality will take place on February 23, 2026, in the riding of Chicoutimi. The seat became vacant last September after CAQ MNA Andrée Laforest resigned to run for mayor of Saguenay—a bid that was ultimately unsuccessful. The byelection will serve as a bellwether for the province’s mood, offering a concrete measure of the CAQ’s decline and the PQ’s ascent.

The candidates include Marie-Karlynn Laflamme for the PQ and Francis Tremblay for the CAQ. A loss for the CAQ in Chicoutimi would mark their fourth consecutive byelection defeat, further demoralizing the party rank-and-file during the leadership transition. Conversely, a victory for the PQ would solidify their status as the frontrunners for the upcoming general election.

Conclusion

As Quebec moves through the early months of 2026, the political atmosphere is charged with uncertainty. François Legault’s resignation has dismantled the status quo, leaving a fractured parliament and an electorate eager for new direction. With the CAQ fighting for survival, the PQ surging, and the Liberals attempting to rebuild, the next few months will be critical in defining the future of the province. All eyes now turn to the leadership races and the Chicoutimi byelection, which will set the stage for a high-stakes showdown on October 5.

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